A look by square footage at today's market.

I've put together a side by side analysis of what has happened to the Brookline Condo market by square footage. We always break down pricing and how much each price range has shifted, but none of us live in a price range. We all live in a condo or home that is a defined (we hope) square footage. The column on the left is 2008 year to date. The column on the right is the same period of 2007. The data source is MLSPIN. Feel free to contact me with any questions. To see the full size image, click on the text.




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Housing sales rise on biggest-ever price drop - CNN

Housing sales rise on biggest-ever price drop - Mar. 24, 2008

While we always talk about the market being local, and reasons for Brookline's market out-pacing the national market, we are finally seeing some good news nationally. While this number makes perfect historical sense (houses "sold" in January went under agreement during the holiday season when fewer buyers are out there) it is still a sign that all of the fear of October-January isn't fully playing out in the marketplace.

58 people walked in the door....

So, I keep reading the awful news about the market and how Brookline has just been lucky so far to avoid the downturn. People comment that the turn is coming and those of us in Brookline should just wait.

Well, I had 58 people walk into my open house last weekend. All of the guests seemed pretty interested in buying and they are all finding a reduced housing supply environment. I also know that compared to the first two months of 2007 my company has seen the same exact sales volume in the Newton/Brookline markets. We will see what "match week" at the hospitals brings us, but the Brookline housing stock is selling incredibly well right now.

In terms of market stats, the condominium median sales price in the first two months of the year when compared to the same period from last year has increased from $415,500 to $432,500. There are many more stats we can share, but many people always say stats are old news. The 58 people who visited my listing on Sunday tell the true story.

Boston Magazine's Best Places To Live

Boston Magazine, which I think gets read maybe once a year by us all (Best of Boston issue) has their annual "The Best Places to Live" issue out. Inside they have a trifold tear out piece that details the median price, difference from last year, one year percentage change, five year percentage change and average days on market. What we learn is exactly what we already knew.

On the sidebar there are four groupings with four towns in each:
1. "Pouncers, Keepers" (Where homes are selling fastest)
2. "Slump? What slump?"(Where prices have jumped the most in one year)
3. "Onward and upward" (Where prices have increased the most in five years)
4. "Look out below!" (Where prices have fallen the most in one year)

Allston and Jamaica Plain are in the pouncers, keepers category with with 79 and 87 days on market respectively (Brookline is at 91 days for condos)

Brookline is listed in the onward and upward category with a five year price bump of 36% (single family homes), beaten only by Duxbury and Rowley. Brookline's condo market has "only" grown 20.3% in five years. This condo growth only ranks 65th in the Commonwealth, but that is more a sign of the growth of condominiums in other markets where there weren't many in the past. If everyone remembers back to 2003-2005 the number of condominium conversions was out of control. When you introduce a product to the market for the first time you will always have unbelievable swings in statistics (see Hanover and 311% increase).

Either way, this is continued evidence that 2007 was not nearly as bad as everyone attempted to make it seem.

Amazing Trends

In the last 20 days the Brookline market has seen the following:

New (not reactivated) property on Market:

9 Single Family Homes - average list price: $1,393,333

27 Condominiums - average list price: $651,174

1 Multi-family house

Property Under Agreement:

9 Single Family Homes (2 still taking back-up offers)

27 Condos (2 also still taking back-up offers)

1 Multi-family

At the time of year when we should see supply start to flood the market we're almost at a 1:1 ratio on new property to property being removed from the marketplace.

We can also look at some of the days on market for the property going under agreement and we see numbers like: 15 days & 25 days for Single Families and 7, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 18 & 26 days for the condominiums. The multi-family home was put under contract in 14 days.

These numbers are amazing given what we've all heard and seen in the marketplace. If your life is dictating that you should sell right now, but you're worried about what's going on, these numbers are proof that you will be ok. If you're looking to buy right now and you're "waiting it out" these numbers are proof that the property in Brookline will be bought my somebody else if you don't step up to the plate.

2006 vs. 2007 Brookline Condo Sales Report

With all of the media hype in the second half of 2007 I would expect to see the bottom fall out of the Brookline real estate market. Regular readers here already know that hasn't happened, but let's take a look at what has happened.

In 2006:

The median sale price of a condominium was: $453,000

The average sale price of a condominium was: $508,373

625 Condos sold in an average of 85 days on market.

In 2007:

The median sale price of a condominium was: $453,339

The average sale price of a condominium was: $502,144

660 Condos sold in an average of 91 days on market.

The only "downturn" we see is the slight dip in the average sale price. I put both average and median in because it gives us a more firm overview on the whole market. Two major reasons for the change in average sale prices are more sub-$200,000 condos sold in '07 (5 vs 4) and the highest priced condo sold in '06 was $2.125 million as opposed to $1.9 million in '07. It's because of these swings that a median price analysis is sometimes more indicative of true trends.

All in all we can say in the condo market, more property sold for pretty much the same prices as last year in about the same amount of time on the market. Can someone tell me where the "crash" is?

I know what you're saying, but what do you mean?

There is so much talk these days about the real estate market, pricing changes and trends, and all things related to our most precious investment. What does it mean? What numbers should we pay attention to and what should we not worry about?

Statement 1: "The real estate market has dropped close to 20% nationally."

Response: There are areas of the country that are being hit very hard right now. Some of the largest losses are in Florida and California.

Statement 2: "The media has story after story about how bad the market is, how can it possibly be good?"

Response: Compared to the 3rd quarter of last year, our total number of condominiums sold increased 15.6%. The median prices increased 3.0%. The average days on market is down two days and the total inventory remaining on the market is down 18.9%. The single family sales numbers are far and away better than the condos. Please contact me if you want the full breakdown.

Comment: So, what does this mean?

Response: Buyers and sellers need to take a good hard look at the numbers. Right now we are in "stand-off" mode. Buyers are going to properties and saying "I'm not going to pay that price because the market is down." It is critical for buyers to take a good look at property simply for how it fits the lifestyle they want and then have their buyer's agent negotiate the proper price for it. Sellers, you need to make sure you are absolutely attuned to the sensitivity of the market right now and take your best shot pricing your property from the start. Long gone are the days of "we'll try this price for a few weeks and if it doesn't sell....." Price your property to sell immediately. The worst thing that can happen is people get into a bidding war over it. Doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

We'll wait to see what numbers October brings us tomorrow, but for now Happy Halloween and take a deep breath. The sky is not falling.

"September sales tank..." except they don't.

Ah, my nemesis Kimberly "Chicken Little" Blanton is at it again. Fear mongering, inflammatory statements that brush the far side of the truth, and simple over generalization about something that cannot and MUST NOT be over-generalized.

On October 9th I started my post by stating I was providing numbers you should see in the Globe but you won't. I then put together a press release that I emailed to various media outlets, including the Globe. Please contact me if you would like a copy of it.

Tucked at the bottom of the business section piece on the market are quotes and numbers indicating that the Greater Boston market is actually UP. Take a look at the numbers, make your own conclusion. Yes, the market in other areas of Massachusetts is not nearly as strong as we have here in Brookline. I would not give you a market analysis of your home using sales stats from Worcester, so why should you be swayed by stats from their market either? The Globe is doing a disservice to the sellers of the Greater Boston area. They are spitting in the face of arguably their single largest revenue source, and they do not take the responsibility they have as a respected news resource seriously enough. If you read Kimberly's piece and are thinking about selling your home you will most likely panic. Please take a deep breath, take a look at Brookline's numbers and you will see that your investment is still as secure as it ever has been.

As a quick post script, tonight you will be able to see me roughly at 7:30 being interviewed by the Brookline Board of Selectmen for appointment to the Zoning Board of Appeals. There has been a lot of controversy surrounding the Board recently, and I hope to be a part of restoring confidence in the process. For more detail tune into BATV Channel 23.

September's market snapshot - Numbers Don't Lie III

Once again from the Raveis home office we have numbers which you will not see printed in the Globe but should. They have a wonderful piece today about how numbers are down "on the South Shore" in which they mysteriously leave out a large number of towns that don't support their editorial content. Here we have Brookline's numbers.

vs. Massachusetts Sept. SINGLE YTD TOWN Inventory % Ch. SOLD % Ch. Avg.$$ % Ch. Brookline 2006 109 156 1,294,171 2007 75 -31.19% 184 17.94% 1,466,683 13.32% Newton 2006 336 587 895,248 2007 187 -44.34% 686 16.86% 955,947 6.70% Jma. Pln. 2006 47 95 614,517 2007 33 -29.78% 80 -0.52% 537,995 -12.45% MASS 2006 31667 46,347 431,470 2007 30797 -2.74% 44,268 -44.00% 431,848 0.01% Sept. CONDOMINIUM YTD Inventory % Ch. SOLD % Ch. Avg.$$ % Ch. Brookline 2006 301 659 509,449 2007 239 -20.59% 728 10.47% 500,064 -1.80% Newton 2006 203 303 544,398 2007 145 -28.57% 310 2.30% 534,682 -1.78% Jma. Pln. 2006 218 446 350,303 2007 172 -19.26% 460 3.13% 368,666 5.24% Brighton 2006 180 494 291,412 2007 120 -33.33% 421 -14.77% 312,915 7.37% MASS 2006 16075 23586 321,780 2007 14959 -6.94% 22047 -6.52% 336,173 4.47% Sngl. Fam Sale Price % Ch. Condo's Sale Price Brookline 2006 13 1,055,270 47 508,175 2007 12 1,479,487 40.19% 34 596,513 17.38% Newton 2006 44 963,153 21 570,602 2007 44 913,027 -5.20% 20 516,612 -9.46%

To boil it down to simple numbers, Single Family inventory for the year is down right now (think supply and demand) because almost 20% more homes have sold and overall those sales have been for more than 13% more money. This month alone there is a 40% increase in sales price for single family homes last month over September '06.

In terms of condos, we saw fewer sell in September, but the number on market is down 20%. Those that did sell were able to sell for almost $90,000 more than they did in September last year.

This is a tremendous market right now. Buyers already know they are finding amazing deals, and if you are a seller you can look at these numbers and see that appropriately valued property is still selling at a rate that blows the rest of the country away.

Turnaround? Rebound?

For today, and I think today alone, I'm going to give credit to Kimberly Blanton at The Boston Globe for her piece in the Globe Real Estate Blog. Add this new news to the stats yesterday from MAR and The Warren Group and you'll see more and more cautiously optimistic news. Yes, the housing market nationally is down. There are segments of the market which are way down. However, Boston is still growing in terms of prices and other key market waypoints.

Let's face it, the once thing Greater Boston always has going for it is life. How many thousands of students and young professionals come and go each year? How many new doctors arrive for their residencies and how many new biotech jobs are created each year? These people all need a place to live. Add that to the normal cycle of life (birth, death, new jobs, kids growing up, etc...) which causes people to move and you'll see all of the key elements of a perpetually strong real estate market.

People in the market today have heard all of the news, they've been scared by all of the bad reports and they're taking a look at their life priorities. Those who truly need to buy or sell are motivated by that need and make their decisions accordingly. This is why our market is so healthy today. A renter who shouldn't really buy yet is holding off until they actually have enough money to buy. A seller who is changing their quality of life lists their property to move, not to make gobs and gobs of money. This is all good and this will keep us all strong for a long time.

Remember, extreme growth feels really really good, but most times it's not sustainable, and this is what we saw happen recently. We're back to "normal" growth now, and we're in a good spot.

Numbers don't Lie...Part I

I was browsing Trulia today and came across some interesting numbers. In their Brookline Real Estate Guide they show snapshot graphs of the average sale price, median sale price, average price per square foot, average listing price, and the number of sales. These numbers are broken down into number of bedrooms as well as the whole market. Now, the data is culled from "assessor and title deed data and Trulia search traffic." The one wild-card in this are the numbers that come from Trulia search traffic, because we do not know how representative of the market they are. Let's just assume for discussion purposes though that the numbers are pretty close to being on target. What do we see?

The average sales price for 1 bedroom condos has gone up 11.2% in the second quarter of the year. Now, this is the heart of the season, but a gain of over 10% is noteworthy considering the media's perspective so far this year. For 2 bedrooms there was also a gain, although this one was just shy of 2%. Three bedroom condos lost 6% but I would actually expect to see a gain in the 3rd quarter numbers, as most families with kids like to close on their condos between July and September. 4 bedroom homes, which in Brookline puts you in the $1,000,000+ ball park, we are down only 0.7% since the first quarter. The interesting stat to look at for the 4 bedroom homes is the change from one year ago. In the 2nd quarter of 2006 a 4 bedroom home sold for an average of $880,447, today it's $1,128,918. That is SIGNIFICANT positive growth.

Check back tomorrow for more...

What do they know that we don't?

The big news in Brookline real estate this week is the purchase of the McCourt estate by John Henry. For those who don't follow these things, Frank McCourt is the owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers and one of the people who lost out to the Henry/Werner ownership team when the Red Sox were last bought. John Henry has made (and lost) billions in commodities trading and other financial ventures prior to his Sox tenure. My question to the world is...if the market is so bad, why is someone with as much financial knowledge as John Henry has buying a 16.5 million dollar property now?

The answer is simple. This is an amazing time to buy because the prices have shown they're not free-falling as predicted, and for now mortgage rates are going down. Not that John Henry is getting a jumbo loan on this house or anything, but still the buying climate is great. Add Henry's decision to the speculation last week that Warren Buffet was considering buying a portion of Countrywide and you're seeing that a lot of very successful and financially powerful people think we might have reached the bottom.

Here we are at Labor Day Weekend, the second "season" for real estate is about to start. Property is still going under agreement, and there is no better time to buy than now.