Housing Newsletter from William Raveis Real Estate, Mortgage & Insurance

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline & Newton Office 191 Grove Street Brookline, MA 02467 95 Union Street Newton Centre, MA 02459 Office Phone: 617-762-3512 Office Fax: 617-762-3512 Email: greg@gregkiely.com Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company	Hi Brookline, Below are the links to the William Raveis monthly housing newsletter for Brookline. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) Please feel free to contact me if we can be of any assistance. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Housing Newsletter from William Raveis Real Estate, Mortgage & Insurance

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Brookline, MA 02467 Office Phone: 617-731-7737 Office Fax: 617-731-7723 Email: kielyg@raveisre.com Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company	Hi Brookline, Below is/are the links to the William Raveis monthly housing newsletter. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

August Sales Numbers & Housing Newsletter

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Brookline, MA 02467 Office Phone: 617-731-7737 Office Fax: 617-731-7723 Email: greg@thebrooklineconnection.com Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company	Hi Brookline, Below are the links to the William Raveis monthly housing newsletter for our town. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Current Local Housing Graphs

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Yes things are down, and they are up. HUH?!?!

Today's Brookline TAB Blog piece about May home sales highlights a continuing trend in Brookline. Single family homes are not selling(only 5 in May). Condos are selling well(78 now, 74 last year). Pricing is down in condos slightly, but some of that is tied to a difference in data between MLSPIN and the Warren Group (taken from the Registry of Deeds). I've consistently kept my analysis tied to the information available on MLS as it allows a slightly broader selection of search options.

So, in response to Neal, what the heck is going on out there?

From the beginning we've always identified supply and demand as the one and only constant in a real estate market. Brookline has always had demand. Whether it's tied to the proximity to the Longwood Medical and Academic Areas, the Biotech Corridor in Cambridge, or plain and simple, downtown Boston, Brookline has always had the benefit of strong desirability.

Which of those things has changed in the last year? Call me when one of them does, because that will be HUGE news.

The one thing about demand is we can't really control it. It ebbs and flows, is tied to financial hardships, and can swing as quickly as the publication of MCAS scores.

What about supply?

That's a simple measure. We have none right now when it comes to single family homes. In the last month we saw 25 properties on the market, 10 of them went under contract, and only 3 sold.

When we compare that to last year, that's about 1/4 of the volume in all categories.

So, why? Single family homes in Brookline are expensive. Even when compared to our lofty reality, only a small segment of the overall population can ever think about buying them. Does it surprise anyone, in an era of 50% declines in the Stock Market that we're talking about millionaires not moving frequently?

Condos on the other hand have been feed by a sudden, and somewhat shocking, construction and conversion boom this spring. From St. Aidan's, the projects on Sewall, St. Paul and Green, North Brookline has seen an amazing influx of new supply.

Remember, the factors that drive demand have not changed dramatically since the boom days of 2003-2006. So, if anything limited our marketplace last year it was a lack of good stuff to buy. Now, we're seeing great new condos sell after less than a week on the market. We're seeing people who still yearn to live in our great community. As a result, pricing has stayed pretty steady.

So, what's on the horizon?

Remember those three single family home sales? We've already seen 16 more in the 25 days of June so far. So, I look forward to Neal being able to write " Home sales up 500% since last month.

Condos are a little more complex, and I'd rather wait for the numbers to come out at the end of the month. At the end of the day, our market is hanging in there. Your local real estate offices are amazingly busy. Our schools are still amazing, and if we could ever have a sunny day we might all be able to get away from our computers and out around town to enjoy the amazing, demand-driving benefits of Brookline.

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Greg Kiely is the Operations Manager for both the Newton and Brookline offices of
William Raveis Real Estate, Mortgage & Insurance. He works regularly with many of the area's most accomplished agents and deals personally with the marketing and sale of every transaction in each office. Greg also serves on the Government Affairs Committee of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Newest Monthly Housing Newsletter

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Brookline, MA 02467 Newton Centre Office 10 Langley Road Newton, MA 02459 Direct Line: 617.762.3512 Cell Phone: 617.217.8875 Toll Free: 888.731.8875 Email: greg@thebrooklineconnection.com View My Listings Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company

Hi Brookline Buyers & Sellers, Below are the links to the monthly housing newsletter for Brookline. Each link brings you to a printable snapshot of last month's real estate activity for our town and our town only. If you would like other towns, please post a comment below and I will gladly customize a newsletter for you. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) Please feel free to contact me if we can be of any assistance. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Monthly Housing Newsletter.

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 Newton Office 10 Langley Road Newton Centre, MA 02459 Direct Line: 617.762.3512 Cell Phone: 617.217.8875 Toll Free: 888.731.8875 Email: kielyg@raveisre.com View My Listings Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company	Hi Brookline Buyers & Sellers, Below is/are the link(s) to the William Raveis monthly housing newsletter for the specific town(s) you have chosen. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) Please feel free to contact me if we can be of any assistance. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

World Series Trophy and Links

The World Series Trophy will be in Brookline tomorrow (Thursday the 26th).

In the news this week Mass housing prices have fallen 8.6% from last year, but Brookline's numbers are doing very well.

I was quoted in the cover story from the Homes section in The Boston Globe on Sunday. In essence, the question was whether or not an expensive garden would impact a sales price. My extended opinion is while it might not directly impact a sale price for a house it would help differentiate a house from competition in a crowded marketplace. From there, that might save the seller time and money in moving onto the next phase of their life.

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Wall Street Journal - MUST READ

Where Home Prices Are Holding Up - WSJ.com

Nearby communities are a mixed bag. Condos in suburban Brookline, one of the most desirable Zip Codes -- 02445 -- are down about 8%, while neighboring 02446 is up nearly 7%, for example. Among city neighborhoods, Dorchester is down across the board by as much as 25%, yet Jamaica Plain and West Roxbury are each up between 7% and 9%.

This is a wonderful article (link above) that might send people off on a "look how great things are" streak. HOWEVER, we absolutely must first dig deep into the numbers.

Why is 02446 up 7%? How is it different than 02445? Why is Brookline doing better than Boston?

1) 02446 is "up" because it has a larger diversity of housing supply. The median and average prices are only a sign of what has sold. We can extrapolate what has not sold from here. The "low end" property, for this discussion I will classify that as a condo below $450,000, in 02446 (North Brookline including Coolidge Corner) is not selling. When you remove sales from those price points, more expensive property is selling which moves the average, but the average is not indicating how comparable listings are being affected.

2) 02445 is down because it has more "upper end" property. The condos tend to be larger and have less turnover. There is a larger concentration of single family homes, and I would say this neighborhood is a more "standard" representation of the global marketplace. It is rare to find a $300,000 condo in 02445 because those neighborhoods are not as immediately accessible to public transportation (Washington Square and Brookline Village excluded).

3) Brookline is doing "better" than Boston for a number of reasons. We've frequently run through them here, but tops is the relative suburban nature of the town combined with the immediate proximity to Boston. Just as critical is the immense strength and performance of the Brookline school system. Finally, as has been seen across the board, those with significant "buying power" are not being hurt by new mortgage regulations and the "credit crunch" as much as the youngest professionals or those on a fixed income.

If you would like a more concise break-down of these numbers as they apply to a specific situation, please contact me.

Telling you what you already knew.

"The overall pattern returns me to my musings last month about the possibility that towns closer to Boston are becoming more desirable than towns even one step further from the city. Most striking to me is that prices in Boston proper actually rose last month, for single-family homes and condominiums. Basically, Boston and its closest suburbs are chugging along, while almost everything outside that tight cluster looks pink around the gills. "

-- Binyamin Appelbaum, Boston Globe Real Estate Now Blog.

Now that we're fully talking about 1990/1991 in comparison to the current state of the Mass housing market, it is important to look back to the very basic needs and make buying decisions off of them. Brookline has historically grown even through these downturns. We have many reasons why Brookline is always a top performer. We see the current stats, yet we still hear in our minds that things should be crashing through the floor. We are in a good place here in Brookline, and we should be tremendously thankful for that. Property is still going under agreement just as fast, if not faster, than it is coming on. Remember, real estate was always about "location, location, location" and I cannot think of any better location than here. In our times of high gas prices and collapsing housing prices we have a town where you can walk most places you need to go and our housing prices are strong. What could be better?

Is anything more volitile than the Boston Globe Real Estate Section?

The Globe's resident real estate blogger Binya Appelbaum has posted a piece that includes the map below. The blue outlined towns are showing an increase in median sales price for single family homes in the first two months of '08. The red are showing a decrease. To fit the criteria the town had to have 20 closed single family home sales. Brookline has only had 10 sales in this time period so we are left off the list. What I can tell you is the median price this year is $1,548,760. The median price from last year was $1,405,937. This is an increase of 10%. Binya, circle us in blue!

Boston Magazine's Best Places To Live

Boston Magazine, which I think gets read maybe once a year by us all (Best of Boston issue) has their annual "The Best Places to Live" issue out. Inside they have a trifold tear out piece that details the median price, difference from last year, one year percentage change, five year percentage change and average days on market. What we learn is exactly what we already knew.

On the sidebar there are four groupings with four towns in each:
1. "Pouncers, Keepers" (Where homes are selling fastest)
2. "Slump? What slump?"(Where prices have jumped the most in one year)
3. "Onward and upward" (Where prices have increased the most in five years)
4. "Look out below!" (Where prices have fallen the most in one year)

Allston and Jamaica Plain are in the pouncers, keepers category with with 79 and 87 days on market respectively (Brookline is at 91 days for condos)

Brookline is listed in the onward and upward category with a five year price bump of 36% (single family homes), beaten only by Duxbury and Rowley. Brookline's condo market has "only" grown 20.3% in five years. This condo growth only ranks 65th in the Commonwealth, but that is more a sign of the growth of condominiums in other markets where there weren't many in the past. If everyone remembers back to 2003-2005 the number of condominium conversions was out of control. When you introduce a product to the market for the first time you will always have unbelievable swings in statistics (see Hanover and 311% increase).

Either way, this is continued evidence that 2007 was not nearly as bad as everyone attempted to make it seem.

Homes see first price drop on record - CNN

Homes see first price drop on record - Jan. 24, 2008

This article was found on CNN.com this morning and speaks to the news that many home sellers are dreading. These numbers are important for all participants in the real estate market to understand well. What is even more important is for everyone to look at which factors will lead to a housing "rebound." The very last line of the article is most telling in my mind.

"Hopefully by the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009," [Mike Larson, Weiss Research] added, "supply levels will come down and we'll see some stabilization."

Supply and demand will continue to be the most basic of all factors in our economy. On Tuesday I discussed the "9 Factors Protecting Brookline from Market Collapse" and the most important of them all was supply and demand. The businesses, schools and hospitals which drive housing demand in Brookline specifically are still creating the same level of demand as they always have. The supply has plummeted.

This graph shows us that the available "supply" is down tremendously.

This graph shows us that the number of properties being bought (demand) is up strongly.

There is no analyst that can point to your local market and tell you that supply and demand will fail, for the first time ever, here in Brookline.

Immediate Access to Local Housing Data

I have added a link to the menu on the left that will provide everyone with access to constantly updated graphs and charts of local housing statistics for any town in Connecticut or Massachusetts. There are so many factors which go into analyzing every market, and these charts attempt to cover the most powerful of them. Either way, with all of the reports swirling around about the market, I ask all Brookline residents and home buyers to look at what causes people to buy or sell. Kids are still moving off to college or getting married and leaving home for good. People are still getting new jobs and relocating. Children are still being born. Therefore, the market will continue to turn, and we know that we live in one of the most sought-after communities around. With the small amount of available housing supply out there, we know that the sellers who need to move will find less competition for buyers and the buyers out there will be drawn to the new housing stock hitting the market over the next few weeks. These elements add up to a good formula for success. None of us really knows definitively what will happen, but very few things make as much sense as supply and demand. Today we see strong demand without much supply. I like that formula.

2006 vs. 2007 Brookline Single Family Sales Report

The second part of yesterday's report is what single-family homes have done in Brookline. If you remember back to September, single family homes were doing significantly better this year than last. So, here we go:

In 2006:

The median sale price of a single-family home was: $1,000,000

The average sale price of a single-family home was: $1,288,169

159 homes sold in an average of 129 days on market.


In 2007:

The median sale price of a single-family home was: $1,100,000

The average sale price of a single-family home was: $1,432,278

187 homes sold in an average of 139 days on market.


So, at the completion of the year we see we're doing well. More single-family homes were sold in 2007, more condominiums were sold in 2007. The median price for single family homes went up. The median price for condominiums went up. The days on market stayed reasonable, and Brookline has escaped the firestorm. Do not expect to hear these numbers from The Globe because there are areas in Massachusetts where home sellers are having a considerably tougher go of it.

If you are thinking of selling in 2008 it is critical that you are armed with this information to help support your pricing goals. It is even more imperative that your agent can quote these numbers. Any agent in Brookline who does not have a complete understanding of where our market sits on a month to month or year to year basis is doing a disservice to their customers and clients. Do not trick yourself into thinking it will be easy to sell in 2008. It will take more work and you will have to be more precise and persistent. If you have the right strategies behind you I know you will find success.

2006 vs. 2007 Brookline Condo Sales Report

With all of the media hype in the second half of 2007 I would expect to see the bottom fall out of the Brookline real estate market. Regular readers here already know that hasn't happened, but let's take a look at what has happened.

In 2006:

The median sale price of a condominium was: $453,000

The average sale price of a condominium was: $508,373

625 Condos sold in an average of 85 days on market.

In 2007:

The median sale price of a condominium was: $453,339

The average sale price of a condominium was: $502,144

660 Condos sold in an average of 91 days on market.

The only "downturn" we see is the slight dip in the average sale price. I put both average and median in because it gives us a more firm overview on the whole market. Two major reasons for the change in average sale prices are more sub-$200,000 condos sold in '07 (5 vs 4) and the highest priced condo sold in '06 was $2.125 million as opposed to $1.9 million in '07. It's because of these swings that a median price analysis is sometimes more indicative of true trends.

All in all we can say in the condo market, more property sold for pretty much the same prices as last year in about the same amount of time on the market. Can someone tell me where the "crash" is?

Lots and Lots of News!

Welcome to the New Year! I hope everybody had a safe and enjoyable Holiday. There will be lots of news here in the next few days. I will start with a final analysis of the market numbers from 2007. From there we will start to discuss the many major mortgage industry changes that will impact Brookline buyers and sellers in 2008. Also, we will start to see an incredible number of properties come on the market over the next 30 days. Stay tuned!

Local home sales slide - The Boston Globe

Local home sales slide - Daily Business Update - The Boston Globe

Kimberly Blanton posted this today in the Globe's business section and it's already become one of the most emailed articles of the week. Here is what you absolutely need to know for Brookline.

November 2006 Condo Sales

Median Price: $457,553
Average Days on Market: 107

November 2007 Condo Sales

Median Price: $490,000
Average Days on Market: 79

I have not put single family home sales because they are skewed by the small number of properties sold this time of year. 10-15 homes is not the best tool for comparison when we have three to five times as many condos being sold in a similar period. A few things which cause the numbers in any November to be down from the rest of the year is the type of property that sells better later in the year. Many 3 bedroom+ units are bought by families who don't enjoy moving their children mid-school year. A lot of one bedroom units sell this time of year to renting professionals or the new crop of Medical Area recruits who are moving to Brookline in January. Look for live housing data graphs shortly on my website: www.TheBrooklineConnection.com

Realtors' Forecast Bucks Common Wisdom

Realtors' Forecast Bucks Common Wisdom - EarthLink - Top News

I enjoyed seeing this in the Boston Globe's "Worst of 2007." Rona Fischman, a buyers agent, might actually find herself and her colleagues over at the Chicken Little Media Factory in my "Worst of 2007" for the reasons this article mentions.

"Despite over-exaggerated negative coverage on the housing conditions, many local markets are actually seeing price increases," Yun said at a press briefing. "Mortgage availability is improving."

I have tried not to editorialize here on the numbers we've seen. While blogs are at their root editorial devices, I have provided hard numbers in my market update sections, and I firmly stand by them. As of this week, this blog has been viewed over 1000 times this Fall and each of you has seen that Brookline's raw statistics demonstrate market stability if not growth. As with all markets, they can be broken down into "sub-markets" of the larger piece, and there will always be pockets of Brookline or specific property types which struggle. Let's face it, in 2004 you had to buy a condo that was on top of the D-Line if you wanted to live in Brookline because a) it was the only thing remotely affordable and b) it was the only thing that didn't sell immediately after coming on market. You won't see those things anymore. People caught up in the height of the boom will not have the same success as sellers now. This does not mean our market is bad. In fact, I would say that more bad property was bought and the market was more harmful back in '04 than it is now.

As we approach the end of the year I will post a 2005 - 2006 - 2007 comparison. I predict it will show 2007 being an improvement from 2006, but both of them sliding down slightly from 2005. Again, the market correcting is not a bad thing. The people who are predicting doom and gloom were the same people who were screaming that the market was in extreme over-valuation a few years ago. You cannot have it both ways. If you bought in 2005, it might take until 2009 for you to see growth. If that upsets you, I suggest you speak with anyone who bought property in the mid '80s. While I am not an investment analyst, I will tell you that a home is not a stock which will fluctuate wildly and provide you chances for immediate growth. If you stay in your home for five years it should make you some money. There is not a five year period that we've tracked where this has failed to be true. If you are moving more than once every five years, then that is a risk you are taking. We need to all be responsible in the housing decisions we make, conservative in our spending, and realistic about our goals. The balance of the economy didn't suddenly shift, the "unsustainable" growth stopped being sustained.

Brookline home values down, taxes likely up - Brookline, MA - Brookline TAB

Brookline home values down, taxes likely up - Brookline, MA - Brookline TAB

Jessica Scarpati, one of the TAB's great local government reporters, wrote the linked article in this week's paper. It takes some knowledge of the terms she dances around to understand that she is making reference to the "assessed value" of property in Brookline. While I know writers normally don't write their own headlines, I do have to take some issue with a glossing over of a few of the details in this article. One will notice, if they go to the Town of Brookline Assessor's Office website, that even in condo buildings with identical units assessments differ pretty significantly. For example, in my building I know the value of the condominiums (all identical) varies by over 10%. I know that there is nothing in any of our condos to warrant a 10% difference, so this "value" that Jessica refers to is somewhat ambiguous.

What cannot be ignored is the "sales value" of condominiums and homes in Brookline. We've gone through all of the numbers many times, and as we approach the end of the month we should see even more news on the state of our Brookline-specific housing market. Please read below to follow the sales history from the past few months and if there are any specific numbers I can provide to you, please ask and I will do what I can to provide.

Finally, it is important to be aware of what our "assessed values" are for our individual homes. I know from looking at my building I need to request a tax abatement from the Town. If you have any questions about this process, or need help defending your case, please consider me a resource. There are many times when we can look at relevant sales statistics and get the town to more appropriately designate their assessed value at what the market is actually bearing. This can lead to substantial tax savings (which cuts all of our monthly mortgage payments!)