Housing Newsletter from William Raveis Real Estate, Mortgage & Insurance

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Brookline, MA 02467 Office Phone: 617-731-7737 Office Fax: 617-731-7723 Email: greg@thebrooklineconnection.com View My Listings Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company	Below are the links to the William Raveis monthly housing newsletter for our town. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) Please feel free to contact me with any questions. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Current Local Housing Graphs

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Yes things are down, and they are up. HUH?!?!

Today's Brookline TAB Blog piece about May home sales highlights a continuing trend in Brookline. Single family homes are not selling(only 5 in May). Condos are selling well(78 now, 74 last year). Pricing is down in condos slightly, but some of that is tied to a difference in data between MLSPIN and the Warren Group (taken from the Registry of Deeds). I've consistently kept my analysis tied to the information available on MLS as it allows a slightly broader selection of search options.

So, in response to Neal, what the heck is going on out there?

From the beginning we've always identified supply and demand as the one and only constant in a real estate market. Brookline has always had demand. Whether it's tied to the proximity to the Longwood Medical and Academic Areas, the Biotech Corridor in Cambridge, or plain and simple, downtown Boston, Brookline has always had the benefit of strong desirability.

Which of those things has changed in the last year? Call me when one of them does, because that will be HUGE news.

The one thing about demand is we can't really control it. It ebbs and flows, is tied to financial hardships, and can swing as quickly as the publication of MCAS scores.

What about supply?

That's a simple measure. We have none right now when it comes to single family homes. In the last month we saw 25 properties on the market, 10 of them went under contract, and only 3 sold.

When we compare that to last year, that's about 1/4 of the volume in all categories.

So, why? Single family homes in Brookline are expensive. Even when compared to our lofty reality, only a small segment of the overall population can ever think about buying them. Does it surprise anyone, in an era of 50% declines in the Stock Market that we're talking about millionaires not moving frequently?

Condos on the other hand have been feed by a sudden, and somewhat shocking, construction and conversion boom this spring. From St. Aidan's, the projects on Sewall, St. Paul and Green, North Brookline has seen an amazing influx of new supply.

Remember, the factors that drive demand have not changed dramatically since the boom days of 2003-2006. So, if anything limited our marketplace last year it was a lack of good stuff to buy. Now, we're seeing great new condos sell after less than a week on the market. We're seeing people who still yearn to live in our great community. As a result, pricing has stayed pretty steady.

So, what's on the horizon?

Remember those three single family home sales? We've already seen 16 more in the 25 days of June so far. So, I look forward to Neal being able to write " Home sales up 500% since last month.

Condos are a little more complex, and I'd rather wait for the numbers to come out at the end of the month. At the end of the day, our market is hanging in there. Your local real estate offices are amazingly busy. Our schools are still amazing, and if we could ever have a sunny day we might all be able to get away from our computers and out around town to enjoy the amazing, demand-driving benefits of Brookline.

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Greg Kiely is the Operations Manager for both the Newton and Brookline offices of
William Raveis Real Estate, Mortgage & Insurance. He works regularly with many of the area's most accomplished agents and deals personally with the marketing and sale of every transaction in each office. Greg also serves on the Government Affairs Committee of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Newest Monthly Housing Newsletter

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Brookline, MA 02467 Newton Centre Office 10 Langley Road Newton, MA 02459 Direct Line: 617.762.3512 Cell Phone: 617.217.8875 Toll Free: 888.731.8875 Email: greg@thebrooklineconnection.com View My Listings Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company

Hi Brookline Buyers & Sellers, Below are the links to the monthly housing newsletter for Brookline. Each link brings you to a printable snapshot of last month's real estate activity for our town and our town only. If you would like other towns, please post a comment below and I will gladly customize a newsletter for you. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) Please feel free to contact me if we can be of any assistance. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Remember this?

Longwood Towers in Forclosure (April 17, 2008)

Today's update: Longwood Towers to Auction off Units



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Monthly Housing Newsletter.

Greg Kiely Operations Manager Brookline Office 191 Grove Street Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 Newton Office 10 Langley Road Newton Centre, MA 02459 Direct Line: 617.762.3512 Cell Phone: 617.217.8875 Toll Free: 888.731.8875 Email: kielyg@raveisre.com View My Listings Mortgage Calculator View My Site My Bio Page Find a Home Mortgage Company Insurance Company	Hi Brookline Buyers & Sellers, Below is/are the link(s) to the William Raveis monthly housing newsletter for the specific town(s) you have chosen. Brookline (Single-family residential) Brookline (Condominium) Brookline (Coop) Please feel free to contact me if we can be of any assistance. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Brookline in the Top 100

Best places to live 2008 - Brookline, MA - from MONEY Magazine

Brookline has made the annual Money Magazine list at #87 in the Top 100 places to live for 2008. Obviously you all know I like to live here, and pretty much anyone who reads this either lives here, is planning on moving here, or also sells real estate here. So, for a lot of us this should not be too surprising. For those planning on moving here, we can do a quick recap of the things that have changed since last year which may have improved Brookline's standing.

1) Complete repaving and re-design of our major commercial thoroughfare -- Beacon Street.
This has added at least a partial bike lane, new smooth streets, and barriers for easy entry and exit into angled parking spaces in the busiest shopping districts.

2) Support of a Proposition 2.5 Override.
Brookline has always matched our neighbor to the North (Cambridge) in political activism. However, many Brookline political movements are a little less radical and a little more successful. Brookline is one of the few communities that has voted to support an increase in tax to fund fire, police, public works and school programs. While it's not without significant controversy, at least we haven't cut school programs this year.

3) All of the information (found below) on the national housing downturn seems to point to us as one of the bright shining stars. Cambridge is suffering as an adjoining suburb to Boston and we're thriving in some areas and fully holding our own in others.

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World Series Trophy and Links

The World Series Trophy will be in Brookline tomorrow (Thursday the 26th).

In the news this week Mass housing prices have fallen 8.6% from last year, but Brookline's numbers are doing very well.

I was quoted in the cover story from the Homes section in The Boston Globe on Sunday. In essence, the question was whether or not an expensive garden would impact a sales price. My extended opinion is while it might not directly impact a sale price for a house it would help differentiate a house from competition in a crowded marketplace. From there, that might save the seller time and money in moving onto the next phase of their life.

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A look by square footage at today's market.

I've put together a side by side analysis of what has happened to the Brookline Condo market by square footage. We always break down pricing and how much each price range has shifted, but none of us live in a price range. We all live in a condo or home that is a defined (we hope) square footage. The column on the left is 2008 year to date. The column on the right is the same period of 2007. The data source is MLSPIN. Feel free to contact me with any questions. To see the full size image, click on the text.




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Wall Street Journal - MUST READ

Where Home Prices Are Holding Up - WSJ.com

Nearby communities are a mixed bag. Condos in suburban Brookline, one of the most desirable Zip Codes -- 02445 -- are down about 8%, while neighboring 02446 is up nearly 7%, for example. Among city neighborhoods, Dorchester is down across the board by as much as 25%, yet Jamaica Plain and West Roxbury are each up between 7% and 9%.

This is a wonderful article (link above) that might send people off on a "look how great things are" streak. HOWEVER, we absolutely must first dig deep into the numbers.

Why is 02446 up 7%? How is it different than 02445? Why is Brookline doing better than Boston?

1) 02446 is "up" because it has a larger diversity of housing supply. The median and average prices are only a sign of what has sold. We can extrapolate what has not sold from here. The "low end" property, for this discussion I will classify that as a condo below $450,000, in 02446 (North Brookline including Coolidge Corner) is not selling. When you remove sales from those price points, more expensive property is selling which moves the average, but the average is not indicating how comparable listings are being affected.

2) 02445 is down because it has more "upper end" property. The condos tend to be larger and have less turnover. There is a larger concentration of single family homes, and I would say this neighborhood is a more "standard" representation of the global marketplace. It is rare to find a $300,000 condo in 02445 because those neighborhoods are not as immediately accessible to public transportation (Washington Square and Brookline Village excluded).

3) Brookline is doing "better" than Boston for a number of reasons. We've frequently run through them here, but tops is the relative suburban nature of the town combined with the immediate proximity to Boston. Just as critical is the immense strength and performance of the Brookline school system. Finally, as has been seen across the board, those with significant "buying power" are not being hurt by new mortgage regulations and the "credit crunch" as much as the youngest professionals or those on a fixed income.

If you would like a more concise break-down of these numbers as they apply to a specific situation, please contact me.

Numbers Don't Lie III - First Quarter '08 Report

The first quarter of 2008 is now two days behind us. We have some very interesting numbers that speak to the unique nature of the Brookline housing market. We need to always consider the elements which drive our economy. Supply, demand, buying power and asset reliability are all factors which impact every town. The discussions about Proposition 2.5 overrides in many communities are at the forefront now, and Brookline like many other communities is trying to use the historical strength of the school system as the carrot to get the override approved. What we know for a fact is Brookline's physical location is outstanding. We know Brookline's schools are historically the best and we know that the supply of available property has come off of the previous highs to a very manageable number. So, what are those numbers?

Single Family 1st Quarter 2007:
41 sales and 175 Days on Market at a median price of $959,500

Single Family 1st Quarter 2008:
19 Sales and 105 Days on Market at a median price of $1,135,000

Obviously two numbers jump out at us:

1) There were 22 fewer sales of single family homes. In total there are 22 fewer homes on the market at the end of the quarter and 20 fewer homes currently under agreement. This is amazingly uniform across the board which means the percentages are pretty similar to last year.

2) The median price for sold property has increased $175,500 or 18%(corrected from earlier version). The properties selling are also selling more that two months faster than last year.

Condominiums 1st Quarter 2007:
123 Sales and 100 Days on Market at a median price of $415,000

Condominiums 1st Quarter 2008:
66 Sales and 117 Days on Market at a median price of $432,000

The big drop in number of sales is very interesting. That being said, there are currently 141 condos under agreement at the end of the quarter, so we should watch the sales statistics for April very closely. Again, the median price has gone up. This has seemed to come more from the slow moving "first time home buyer" price points more than an appreciation of value on all condominiums in Brookline. I am more than happy to break down specific price points for anyone who requests it.

Housing sales rise on biggest-ever price drop - CNN

Housing sales rise on biggest-ever price drop - Mar. 24, 2008

While we always talk about the market being local, and reasons for Brookline's market out-pacing the national market, we are finally seeing some good news nationally. While this number makes perfect historical sense (houses "sold" in January went under agreement during the holiday season when fewer buyers are out there) it is still a sign that all of the fear of October-January isn't fully playing out in the marketplace.

Here comes the rush.

Wow, while I haven't been officially counting, we see this week the highest number of new properties introduced to the market in a single week since last year. 21 new condos have hit the market in the last 3 days and another 4 single family homes. The condos range from a 541 sq. ft. 1 bed for $275,000 to a 3512 sq. ft. 4 bed for $1,295,000.

This should be the first full "test" of the Brookline market this season. We've always said that as long as the available housing inventory stays low the constantly regenerating demand of the Brookline market will keep things moving at a healthy rate. Twenty condos should not throw the whole balance off, but if we have another few weeks with similar supply increases we'll need to see some price adjustments to keep the "older" properties moving.

58 people walked in the door....

So, I keep reading the awful news about the market and how Brookline has just been lucky so far to avoid the downturn. People comment that the turn is coming and those of us in Brookline should just wait.

Well, I had 58 people walk into my open house last weekend. All of the guests seemed pretty interested in buying and they are all finding a reduced housing supply environment. I also know that compared to the first two months of 2007 my company has seen the same exact sales volume in the Newton/Brookline markets. We will see what "match week" at the hospitals brings us, but the Brookline housing stock is selling incredibly well right now.

In terms of market stats, the condominium median sales price in the first two months of the year when compared to the same period from last year has increased from $415,500 to $432,500. There are many more stats we can share, but many people always say stats are old news. The 58 people who visited my listing on Sunday tell the true story.

Boston Magazine's Best Places To Live

Boston Magazine, which I think gets read maybe once a year by us all (Best of Boston issue) has their annual "The Best Places to Live" issue out. Inside they have a trifold tear out piece that details the median price, difference from last year, one year percentage change, five year percentage change and average days on market. What we learn is exactly what we already knew.

On the sidebar there are four groupings with four towns in each:
1. "Pouncers, Keepers" (Where homes are selling fastest)
2. "Slump? What slump?"(Where prices have jumped the most in one year)
3. "Onward and upward" (Where prices have increased the most in five years)
4. "Look out below!" (Where prices have fallen the most in one year)

Allston and Jamaica Plain are in the pouncers, keepers category with with 79 and 87 days on market respectively (Brookline is at 91 days for condos)

Brookline is listed in the onward and upward category with a five year price bump of 36% (single family homes), beaten only by Duxbury and Rowley. Brookline's condo market has "only" grown 20.3% in five years. This condo growth only ranks 65th in the Commonwealth, but that is more a sign of the growth of condominiums in other markets where there weren't many in the past. If everyone remembers back to 2003-2005 the number of condominium conversions was out of control. When you introduce a product to the market for the first time you will always have unbelievable swings in statistics (see Hanover and 311% increase).

Either way, this is continued evidence that 2007 was not nearly as bad as everyone attempted to make it seem.

Homes see first price drop on record - CNN

Homes see first price drop on record - Jan. 24, 2008

This article was found on CNN.com this morning and speaks to the news that many home sellers are dreading. These numbers are important for all participants in the real estate market to understand well. What is even more important is for everyone to look at which factors will lead to a housing "rebound." The very last line of the article is most telling in my mind.

"Hopefully by the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009," [Mike Larson, Weiss Research] added, "supply levels will come down and we'll see some stabilization."

Supply and demand will continue to be the most basic of all factors in our economy. On Tuesday I discussed the "9 Factors Protecting Brookline from Market Collapse" and the most important of them all was supply and demand. The businesses, schools and hospitals which drive housing demand in Brookline specifically are still creating the same level of demand as they always have. The supply has plummeted.

This graph shows us that the available "supply" is down tremendously.

This graph shows us that the number of properties being bought (demand) is up strongly.

There is no analyst that can point to your local market and tell you that supply and demand will fail, for the first time ever, here in Brookline.

2006 vs. 2007 Brookline Single Family Sales Report

The second part of yesterday's report is what single-family homes have done in Brookline. If you remember back to September, single family homes were doing significantly better this year than last. So, here we go:

In 2006:

The median sale price of a single-family home was: $1,000,000

The average sale price of a single-family home was: $1,288,169

159 homes sold in an average of 129 days on market.


In 2007:

The median sale price of a single-family home was: $1,100,000

The average sale price of a single-family home was: $1,432,278

187 homes sold in an average of 139 days on market.


So, at the completion of the year we see we're doing well. More single-family homes were sold in 2007, more condominiums were sold in 2007. The median price for single family homes went up. The median price for condominiums went up. The days on market stayed reasonable, and Brookline has escaped the firestorm. Do not expect to hear these numbers from The Globe because there are areas in Massachusetts where home sellers are having a considerably tougher go of it.

If you are thinking of selling in 2008 it is critical that you are armed with this information to help support your pricing goals. It is even more imperative that your agent can quote these numbers. Any agent in Brookline who does not have a complete understanding of where our market sits on a month to month or year to year basis is doing a disservice to their customers and clients. Do not trick yourself into thinking it will be easy to sell in 2008. It will take more work and you will have to be more precise and persistent. If you have the right strategies behind you I know you will find success.

2006 vs. 2007 Brookline Condo Sales Report

With all of the media hype in the second half of 2007 I would expect to see the bottom fall out of the Brookline real estate market. Regular readers here already know that hasn't happened, but let's take a look at what has happened.

In 2006:

The median sale price of a condominium was: $453,000

The average sale price of a condominium was: $508,373

625 Condos sold in an average of 85 days on market.

In 2007:

The median sale price of a condominium was: $453,339

The average sale price of a condominium was: $502,144

660 Condos sold in an average of 91 days on market.

The only "downturn" we see is the slight dip in the average sale price. I put both average and median in because it gives us a more firm overview on the whole market. Two major reasons for the change in average sale prices are more sub-$200,000 condos sold in '07 (5 vs 4) and the highest priced condo sold in '06 was $2.125 million as opposed to $1.9 million in '07. It's because of these swings that a median price analysis is sometimes more indicative of true trends.

All in all we can say in the condo market, more property sold for pretty much the same prices as last year in about the same amount of time on the market. Can someone tell me where the "crash" is?

Local home sales slide - The Boston Globe

Local home sales slide - Daily Business Update - The Boston Globe

Kimberly Blanton posted this today in the Globe's business section and it's already become one of the most emailed articles of the week. Here is what you absolutely need to know for Brookline.

November 2006 Condo Sales

Median Price: $457,553
Average Days on Market: 107

November 2007 Condo Sales

Median Price: $490,000
Average Days on Market: 79

I have not put single family home sales because they are skewed by the small number of properties sold this time of year. 10-15 homes is not the best tool for comparison when we have three to five times as many condos being sold in a similar period. A few things which cause the numbers in any November to be down from the rest of the year is the type of property that sells better later in the year. Many 3 bedroom+ units are bought by families who don't enjoy moving their children mid-school year. A lot of one bedroom units sell this time of year to renting professionals or the new crop of Medical Area recruits who are moving to Brookline in January. Look for live housing data graphs shortly on my website: www.TheBrooklineConnection.com

The Sprint to the Finish Line

With November now in full swing, we are seeing the final 6 weeks of the 2007 market. Last year we saw amazingly strong under agreement rates in late November and December. The "sales" numbers might slow a little because people do not plan to move in the middle of the various holidays.

This brings us to an important distinction in evaluating numbers that come out. We all talk so much about "sales" and what we're looking at are numbers derived from transactions started 1-3 months ago. By the time the data is processed we have a lag in what is happening in the market and what the numbers show us. It is impossible to work off of under agreement statistics because listing agents cannot disclose the price at which a property is put under contract until the transaction ends (closing or the deal falls apart). One thing we have noticed over the past few weeks is transaction "volume" is down. There are fewer properties coming on the market (3-5 each weekend) and property is going under agreement at 5-10 units a week. The numbers point to a good trend, in that we are selling more than we introduce to the market, but we're not at the heavy volume numbers we're used to in the super-strong markets.

Look for some new numbers and graphics showing November's numbers soon. Also, the Brookline Board of Selectmen vote tonight on the appointment of Associate Members to the Zoning Board of Appeals. I am one of about 15 candidates for three vacancies. I like the 1 in 5 odds, but we'll see. Traditionally the Board has appointed architects and attorneys, but I remain excited about the opportunity and will apply again next year if I'm not appointed today.