Where Home Prices Are Holding Up - WSJ.com
Nearby communities are a mixed bag. Condos in suburban Brookline, one of the most desirable Zip Codes -- 02445 -- are down about 8%, while neighboring 02446 is up nearly 7%, for example. Among city neighborhoods, Dorchester is down across the board by as much as 25%, yet Jamaica Plain and West Roxbury are each up between 7% and 9%.
This is a wonderful article (link above) that might send people off on a "look how great things are" streak. HOWEVER, we absolutely must first dig deep into the numbers.
Why is 02446 up 7%? How is it different than 02445? Why is Brookline doing better than Boston?
1) 02446 is "up" because it has a larger diversity of housing supply. The median and average prices are only a sign of what has sold. We can extrapolate what has not sold from here. The "low end" property, for this discussion I will classify that as a condo below $450,000, in 02446 (North Brookline including Coolidge Corner) is not selling. When you remove sales from those price points, more expensive property is selling which moves the average, but the average is not indicating how comparable listings are being affected.
2) 02445 is down because it has more "upper end" property. The condos tend to be larger and have less turnover. There is a larger concentration of single family homes, and I would say this neighborhood is a more "standard" representation of the global marketplace. It is rare to find a $300,000 condo in 02445 because those neighborhoods are not as immediately accessible to public transportation (Washington Square and Brookline Village excluded).
3) Brookline is doing "better" than Boston for a number of reasons. We've frequently run through them here, but tops is the relative suburban nature of the town combined with the immediate proximity to Boston. Just as critical is the immense strength and performance of the Brookline school system. Finally, as has been seen across the board, those with significant "buying power" are not being hurt by new mortgage regulations and the "credit crunch" as much as the youngest professionals or those on a fixed income.
If you would like a more concise break-down of these numbers as they apply to a specific situation, please contact me.
Why is 02446 up 7%? How is it different than 02445? Why is Brookline doing better than Boston?
1) 02446 is "up" because it has a larger diversity of housing supply. The median and average prices are only a sign of what has sold. We can extrapolate what has not sold from here. The "low end" property, for this discussion I will classify that as a condo below $450,000, in 02446 (North Brookline including Coolidge Corner) is not selling. When you remove sales from those price points, more expensive property is selling which moves the average, but the average is not indicating how comparable listings are being affected.
2) 02445 is down because it has more "upper end" property. The condos tend to be larger and have less turnover. There is a larger concentration of single family homes, and I would say this neighborhood is a more "standard" representation of the global marketplace. It is rare to find a $300,000 condo in 02445 because those neighborhoods are not as immediately accessible to public transportation (Washington Square and Brookline Village excluded).
3) Brookline is doing "better" than Boston for a number of reasons. We've frequently run through them here, but tops is the relative suburban nature of the town combined with the immediate proximity to Boston. Just as critical is the immense strength and performance of the Brookline school system. Finally, as has been seen across the board, those with significant "buying power" are not being hurt by new mortgage regulations and the "credit crunch" as much as the youngest professionals or those on a fixed income.
If you would like a more concise break-down of these numbers as they apply to a specific situation, please contact me.
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